Monday, September 15, 2025
Futures: On Friday night, LME copper opened at $10,086/mt, fluctuated considerably in early trading and touched a high of $10,105/mt, then fluctuated downward and approached a low of $10,058/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at $10,064.5/mt, up 0.07%, with trading volume reaching 21,000 lots and open interest reaching 292,000 lots. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened at 80,750 yuan/mt, dipped to 80,700 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 81,100 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved down and finally closed at 80,810 yuan/mt.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On September 11, 2025, Namibia's Green Metals Refining announced an investment of approximately $59 million to build a sulphuric acid plant in Walvis Bay, with an initial annual capacity of 175,000 mt and potential future expansion to 720,000 mt/year. The plant will provide key raw materials for the copper, manganese, and uranium mining industries, reducing import dependence and strengthening the local mining supply chain.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 12, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at premiums of 50-120 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 80,610 to 80,900 yuan/mt. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2509 contract briefly pulled back before stabilizing, then began to rise sharply around 10:00, reaching a high of 80,900 yuan/mt by the end of the first trading session, but only a small amount of brief transactions occurred, and the SHFE copper 2510 contract did not follow. Subsequently, the center pulled back, and overall trading during the morning session fluctuated between 80,560 and 80,780 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between 10-30 yuan/mt, and SHFE copper import losses widened to nearly 500 yuan/mt. Approaching delivery, the open interest of the SHFE copper 2509 contract still does not match the warrants, and it is expected that open interest will continue to decrease today, with possible periodic high performance. After switching to the SHFE copper 2510 contract next week, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to stabilize.
(2) Guangdong: On September 12, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at 0-60 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 30 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at discounts of 80-60 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 70 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,630 yuan/mt, up 510 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,560 yuan/mt, up 540 yuan/mt. Overall, as copper prices continued to rise, downstream consumption was weak, and overall trading was poor, with attention on whether it can improve after the contract rollover.
(3) Imported copper: On September 12, warrant prices were $51-61/mt, QP September, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $54-64/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $24-30/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day, with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in late September and early October.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 12, the futures closing price was 80,710 yuan/mt, up 570 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 85 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 74,000-74,200 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,945 yuan/mt, up 124 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,230 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as the price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod expanded above the advantage line, the purchase willingness of terminal wire and cable enterprises increased significantly. In addition, there is still no clear timeline for production resumptions at enterprises in Jiangxi. If the demand for secondary copper rod increases, it will drive the price of recycled copper raw materials to continue rising.
(5) Inventory: On September 11, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 225 mt to 153,950 mt. On September 12, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 5,532 mt to 25,560 mt.
Price: On the macro front, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's largest western port pushed up international oil prices, directly benefiting copper prices. At the same time, the continued production halt at Freeport Indonesia's copper mine exacerbated the tight supply landscape, providing further support for copper prices. On the policy front, Trump and leading candidate for Fed Chairman, Rick Reed, jointly called for significant interest rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for accommodative monetary policy. Currently, market attention is highly focused on the outcome of the US Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday. On the fundamental side, supply side, mainstream brand supplies remain tight, coupled with weakened expectations for imported copper arrivals, the overall supply landscape is tightening. Demand side, high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and consumption performance is weak. Overall, the market is focused on the outcome of the US Fed's interest rate meeting, and the macro front provides significant support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will find support below today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
